Tuesday, November 02, 2004

the 10 PM EST numbers

Again, no surprises on the "calling" of states. MSNBC just projected Arkansas for Bush (14% vote in, only a 3% difference--we'll have to see how that holds), which takes one worry off my undecideds stage. Florida is 77% reported with a greater than 250,000 margin in favor of Bush (I, personally, am calling FL for Bush right now); Ohio has about 25% reported with a greater than 70,000 voter margin in favor of Bush; Missouri is almost 20% reported with a slight lead for Bush; Colorado has a slight lead for Bush; PA will probably be taken off the board in favor of Kerry in the next hour or so (no surprise to me); Missouri and Wisconsin favor Bush with less than 10% of precincts reporting in both states; and New Hampshire is probably going to be called for Kerry in the next hour. NOTE: MO just called for Bush!

This will be my last live post. Right now, I feel good--Bush is running well in Ohio and appears to be in a position to possibly take two of the midwest 4 (MI, MN, IO, WI). And to note: all that Bush needs now is to close out Florida and Ohio, have all the projections continue to be accurate (I'm thinking that they are), and we have a W for W. And even without OH, if he takes 2 of the midwest 4 (that's a stretch, but I'm hopeful) and EITHER Nevada or New Mexico, then that's still 271 EVs for Bush (this is not my favorite likelihood--but it could still work). And Bush will win by enough margins in most of the important places that this election will be decided by tomorrow mid-morning. And I think we're headed for 4 more years! YAAAAY!


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