Tuesday, November 02, 2004

some election day predictions

from other people, that is. My brother has posted that he thinks W will sweep the Midwest and amass 323 electoral votes today. Jim at Kerry Spot thinks the number will be 295 EVs for the President. Both give a key race (PA) to Kerry, and Mr. Geraghty thinks Michigan and Wisconsin stay blue. But Florida and Ohio are both put in Mr. Bush's corner, as most recent polls (taken with a grain of salt!) are showing.

As for me: I think Florida will go (comfortably, even) for W; I think PA will go to Kerry; I think NH will turn blue (literally and figuratively) in favor of Kerry; Kerry also wins in NJ, OR, MN and Michigan; I think Bush takes CO and NV; and I think that Bush wins Iowa and Wisconsin. That puts Bush at 220 (Kerry at 238) with the following states still undecided by me: Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, New Mexico and Hawaii (80 EVs). But don't despair--if this is how the map shapes up, I really like Bush's chances.

And also don't despair because of the following: I will be able to live-blog the results! Also, I must point out a must-read guide to following the election coverage tonight. So sit back, and watch the madness of the exit polls (I TOLD YOU!!! Don't listen to them--they are easily manipulated) fall by the wayside as precinct reports start coming in. And let's hope for a comfortable Bush victory--maybe not electorally (even a 270-268 margin would do there), but definitely in each state's popular vote that determines those electorals. Let's put this thing out of hand before the lawyers get all a-revved!


Post a Comment

<< Home