Monday, November 01, 2004

backtracking on an earlier "promise"

Who am I, John Kerry?

Seriously, though, I regret to state that I probably won't be able to live-blog the election results tonight. My viewing plans haven't panned out exactly as they were supposed to, so I've got to put the likelihood of me having an "active" connection tonight at "pretty low". My apologies!

Last-second thoughts on the campaign: one of the most intelligent commentaries I believe I've heard so far this campaign was from a source which I can't recall now (although I'm willing to bet I read it on KerrySpot--see links to the right). Anyhow, his analysis was that Kerry needed to have polls showing that Americans thought his victory was "likely" leading in to the election; so far, no such poll exists. In fact, most of the polls I've read--regardless of whether they favor Bush or Kerry--have shown that the polling sample still "thought" Bush would win. Again, regard this little tidbit with the same caution that all polling results deserve--but at the time I read it, I thought that little thought was pretty good. And thus far, nothing amounting to the momentum of a "likely" Kerry victory has emerged.

Also: I'm not going to put too much faith in exit polling this time around, just because the MSM controls their sample, and I don't believe they will suddenly play non-partisan on election night because they know the stakes. They NEED to generate momentum for Kerry tonight, especially at the vital 7:00 PM EST hour when they can start talking about the East Coast states in the hopes of affecting voter turnout in key Western and midWestern states (like New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon and Colorado). So EXPECT exit polling in New Jersey, New Hampshire, Florida and even Virginia to look slanted towards Kerry. But HOPEFULLY, as the precinct results start filtering in, the folks on the West Coast will see the actual voting TRENDS to favor Bush in Florida and Virginia, and for the fight to be remarkably close in NH and NJ. If the MSM can't legitimately claim NJ for Kerry by the time the Central states close their booths, I think that the Bush team will be happy. Of course, none of this takes into account MSM outlets initially claiming one state for Kerry and later retracting that claim. That's why you have to LOOK AT THE NUMBERS as they pop up on screen! Funny how factual facts can be.

Anyhow, please be sure to vote! And let's hope that the dirty tricks of the Dems (did you hear the one where they are calling voters in Florida and telling them that Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf has endorsed Kerry? The General called on the DNC today to stop that nonsense, and in so doing made a pretty clear and effective endorsement for the President. Track down the specifics here. Signs of a campaign in desperation--hopefully the American people will send them back to the depths from which their ideas spring forth.

And now that I think about it, is it too late for a Bush ad featuring the letter from Schwarzkopf to run in Florida? I think that would just about seal the deal there. . .


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