Friday, October 24, 2008

Why Biden was wrong

You know, so much has been made of Biden's words on Sunday that I'm kinda surprised I haven't seen anybody just flat-out call him wrong.

And would you believe that I'm the guy to do that?

Well, I am. . .but don't sell me down the river just yet.

Will Obama, if he wins, be tested in the first 6 months of his Presidency? I believe so. . .but I don't think it will be in the manner that Biden describes.

No, Biden depicted a world wherein a major international crisis is mounted against American interests--you know, the kind of crisis that will test the "mettle" of Obama. And while that MAY happen, my guess is that any "generated" international crisis before, say, August 2009 will be relatively minor in scale.

Leaving Obama's "mettle" untested. . .and that's just where the bad guys want him whn they try to spring their trap!

So why won't this major attack happen soonest? First off, Obama will be inheriting a world that was just presided over by George Bush. And that world isn't ready to attack America just yet. They may dearly want to, but they won't be able to--at least not to the degree which they hope.

Secondly, there is one great truth in America today: the next occupant of the Oval Office that presides over a major attack on American interests is going to have to pay the piper. There's no more "we didn't think it could ever happen"--we live in a world where it has happened, and we know that others are trying to make it happen again. There's no valid excuse--and the American people will not tolerate an adminstration that left us vulnerable. Period.

So if I'm Russia, or Iran, or just some non-state entity that wants to see America fall--not hurt, mind you, but FALL--I realize I've got only one round in the magazine. And I'm gonna make it count.

Thirdly, there are dozens of "minor" crises that could be scripted by some international actor that could actually help feed America down the wrong path. American success--however that is defined--in a truly "generated" crisis COULD ultimately make key elements of our national security/foreign policy weaker (the old "win the battle, lose the war" analogy). Trust me, "dozens" may be too generous--as involved on the international stage as we are, there are hundreds of possible events that, while "good" for our standing in the short term, could end up leaving our ability to deal with a major attack lacking.

And that's when the major attack happens.

That moment isn't going to be in the first six months. . .or the first year. . .or necessarily in the first two years (it kinda depends on how the mid-terms are looking in 2010).

But it will be plotted, just as it has been plotted ad nauseum for every day for the last 15 years at least: a massive, foundation-shaking attack that leaves America stunned and weak. Not "weakened"--weak.

The question is this: will the Obama administration have the right policies, assets and judgement in place that help prevent that attack?

The greater the calendar distance from 9/11, the greater the chance that the answer to that question is "no".

And THAT'S why there won't be a major international crisis immediately in an Obama administration. (Unless, of course, he totally blows the smaller crises he's presented with--then all bets are off)

So Sen. Biden, you were wrong.

Feel better, America? No? Well, then I guess you should VOTE MCCAIN!, and avoid all this unnecessary worry.


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