Thursday, March 06, 2008

another round of horrible predictions

Okay, I’m going to take half credit for calling Texas for Hillary the other night. She won the one she had a chance to win--the primary--but I really did think she would win the caucuses too. Imagine if she had. . .

Speaking of imagining, let’s play a little game: what will the next 2 months hold for the Dems?

I think it is going to get remarkably bloody. This is going to be a real test for Obama, which I believe he will fail. He’s got to believe, to some degree, that last night’s results mean the end of the honeymoon for him. That’s not to say that the left doesn’t still love him. . .just that he doesn’t walk on water anymore. I heard a Democrat strategist last night say that people want to know if Barack can fight, which I think is exactly OPPOSITE of what the left wants to see. They don’t want to see politics as usual (if they wanted that, they‘d go for the proven fighters), they want to see him “above the fray”. But that strategy holds great risk for him, too, and I think THAT’S what the real take-away from last night is. Clinton took shots at his thin resume, and he countered with. . .well, he kept speaking. And he lost. And now Clinton’s lead attack dogs say they aren’t even close to the bottom of the well on similarly-themed ads. Will he keep taking these shots without returning the favor?

My bet is that no, he won’t. I don’t know if it will be the next attack, or the one after that, or just an attempt to get Rezko off the front page or what, but SOMETIME over the next 7 weeks he’s going to start swinging. I think it’s his only hope. Whither the “new politics” he speaks about, you ask? Well, he’s lucky about one thing: the left isn’t well known for consistency. Those who get the vapors about Barack--the ones who are fueling his ascendancy--will think that every shot Team sHrill takes at him is below the belt, and they’ll get downright crazy when he starts hitting back. Never mind that his appeal to moderates--to whatever level it exists today--will be all but shot. No, I think he pulls a rookie mistake and goes counter-message sometime over the next 7 weeks.

And you know what? It will help him heading towards the convention. He might win PA--he might not, I just don’t know right now--but when he and his entourage show up at the convention, undoubtedly WITHOUT enough delegates to have the nomination wrapped up, he will still be a rock-star in that crowd.

What about FL and MI? My bet--make that my hope--is that the Dems realize the best bet for them is to have a “do-over”. They can’t disenfranchise all those voters, and they certainly can’t seat delegates that nobody save Hillary really campaigned for. More money wasted on both parts, and do you know what the end result will be? Hillary will win Florida and Michigan will be approximately a wash. All that equals more mess for the DNC. Tee hee.

SO THERE WE ARE. . .in Denver. . .and it comes down to this: will Clinton, behind in the elected delegate totals, go down gracefully?

Bet you didn’t know I was a humorist, did you?

SERIOUSLY, there’s no way Clinton lets this chance, her ONLY chance, pass. And she won’t take second string, either.

You know, a responsible party HOLDING CONTROL OVER THE NOMINATION (which is, in essence, what the superdelegates give to the DNC), would tell Obama that he could really use another couple years of seasoning before he becomes their 8-year hope. “Take the Veep ticket,” they’ll say.

To which Hillary--despite the fact that the deal will give her the nomination--will say “uh, no.”

And this is all BEFORE Al Gore takes the stage. Not that he’s crazy, but who knows what kind of things he’ll take credit for.

SO WHAT HAPPENS? Well, the ensuing mess is so ugly, so tactless, and yes, so racially driven that just about every moderate is disgusted. Obama does eventually win the nomination--he has to, and the party, having failed to make the case to him that he can wait, will figure that out--but he and his party has zero credibility with the middle.

END GAME: McCain in a romp. Not a “Reagan in ‘84” romp, but enough of a romp to keep the White House in safe hands. And the best part of all is that Clinton is DONE on the Presidential stage, and Obama is so discredited as a “new” politician that he has to set about actually making a record for himself. And that will keep him out of Presidential politics for at least one more cycle.

And if the Congressional GOP can get their heads out of the their butts and just say “no” to pork, we’d take back the house and keep the damage in the Senate to a minimum.


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