Wednesday, January 30, 2008

that noise you hear? That's a rotund female warming up. . .

All right, let's call a spade a spade.

McCain is more than a mere "frontrunner" now. Unless he steps in "it" in the next week, I think he has all but wrapped up the nomination.

Even if Romney had won in Florida, I believed the odds were stacked against him on SuperTuesday, and that he likely wouldn't be the delegate leader after that day.

Well, he didn't win FL. In fact, he lost by a surprisingly substantial margin.

And I did not foresee Rudy dropping out of the race already. I know that it hasn't happened yet, but now that those rumors are floating, he may has well pack in his tents, because his supporters have heard THAT message and are starting to look for another horse to back. At this stage, even if he WAS still in the race, he wouldn't garner 10% of the vote from here on out. He's done.

All of which makes McCain stronger.

Vocal Romney supporters today are talking about their candidate's great organization, and how that will help him on SuperTuesday.

Sorry, friends, but McCain's name recognition will bridge the "organization" gap. He and Giuliani were the only candidates who COULD run on public stature alone. . .and now Giuliani's done. McCain becomes the automatic lever-pull for voters who just don't put a lot of time into this political stuff--and I think that's a substantial amount of people.

So here's the question: how does Mitt respond to his campaign being on life support? It all starts tonight at the CNN-hosted debate in California (read: hostile environment).

I don't think Romney has any choice but to come out guns blazing. And even THAT may not be enough. Romney needs McCain to pull a Hillary--stumble so badly under examination that everything about the campaign is shaken to the foundation.

It's a tough spot indeed, mostly because it needs one of the most chameleon-like politicians of all time to put himself in a bad situation. McCain's waited for this moment for too long, and he's unlikely to play along.

I'd say the odds are stacked WAY against Romney.


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