Monday, January 21, 2008

Monday thoughts

You know, because there's always such clear thinking on a Monday, right?

Starting off: Do I understand that the Pats are listed as an almost two touchdown favorite for the Super Bowl??? If I were a betting man, I'd be all over this one: Giants, plus the points. While I do believe that the Pats will win (I'm not happy about it, but there it is), I don't think it's going to be a two-touchdown blowout. Lest we forget, it was just a couple weeks ago when the Giants gave the Pats a heckuva run for the record in a game where the Giants didn't really have a lot at stake. I'm looking forward to a good game in two weeks, and that's all that I can ask for from a Super Bowl that is, sadly, Orange-and-Blue free.

Next up: more thoughts on Florida. Gotta love more thoughts on Florida, right? Anyhow, here goes: Rudy cannot lose Florida to McCain and have any hopes of getting the nomination, and I think that is the driving force behind Giuliani's message that I'll be seeing here for the rest of the week (did I tell you I'm on-scene in the Sunshine State for the week?) With both Giuliani and Romney giving him the business for the next week, if McCain can pull off a win here he is clearly in the driver's seat, to say the least. A Romney victory here, in and of itself, doesn't spell the end for either McCain or Giuliani--especially if Giuliani still outpolls McCain for second--but it does provide Romney a little breathing room. A Giuliani win . . .well, it depends on how well that translates downstream to some of the biggies on SuperTuesday. Intuitively, you would think it would re-establish him as the favorite in New York, California and New Jersey--but there's nothing intuitive about the race so far.

EARLY WEEK PREDICTION: In the end, I think talking about a Giuliani victory here and "what it means" is probably valuable as a mental exercise only. I think Romney wins here, and it may well be by close to double-digits. The race for second, which will have an impact on how those big states fall on SuperTuesday, I'm not willing to call just yet. But with the victory in Florida, Mitt goes a great distance to erasing the "nightmares" in Iowa and New Hampshire. How success here will translate to SuperTuesday for Romney is anybody's guess, but I know that he will be the unquestioned front-runner then.

That is all for now. Standby for the "dancing" I'll undoubtedly do later this week as I see more local coverage at play.


Blogger Michael said...

well said.


2:14 AM  

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